The grand mythology of the army in Israel began with the thought that the army will protect Israel against ANY danger. The events of the past 15 years (and maybe as far back as 1982) revealed that the army is limited in its ability to protect against ANY danger. The cognitive dissonance was that the army is held back, by “moral values.” TZAHAL is protecting the innocent and as such, is limited in causing harm to the evil. “Let TZAHAL win” is the mantra that came out of this state of mind. Moreover, since “we are the army” then that means that we are “good” with high moral standards. How can you give that great thought up?

Since the 2006 fiasco, many in the public have called on Tzahal’s bluff. Recently I had a long conversation about this with two of my friends. They, too, belonged to the woken-up crowd of post-2006. However, today, two years later, they believe in Tzahal again. They just modified its mission. It is no longer that TZAHAL can protect against ANY danger. TZAHAL now only protects against existential threats. Tzahal cannot be bothered by low-life militants. However, when a REAL threat emerges, Tzahal knocks it out immediately. The proof: the Syrian “nuclear” reactor. I, too, do not know what it was. But i am not willing to take Olmert’s word for it. See Syemour Hersh’s “A Strike in the Dark.”

So, Israel now is opting for the strategy of protecting its people from imaginary threats. The mission now is to just create those. The government and the media in Israel are very good at that.

“Israel’s economic and military power today is entirely dependent on extracting intelligence from its people. Israel’s economic power is endlessly renewable.”

It is important to read that article in this context:

While Israel seems like a country that bet on its people, it really hasn’t. Israel’s biggest problem is losing the very people that will be responsible for its future. The current technology boom is a result of the education policies and relative strength that Israel was displaying 20 and 30 years ago. This is no longer the case. Israel’s education system is collapsing. Israel, in the past, posted excellent math and science scores among its young. This is no longer the case. The high school and elementary school education is in shambles, alarming just like in the U.S (see here and here). Israel and the U.S. are losing their competitive advantage. As long as the brains in the U.S. and Israel will not find an alternative to dinosaur flesh, you also know that Iran, despite its even more dismal test scores (see link above), will have an edge.

Furthermore, the highest ranks of the Israeli academy are losing highly-educated people in droves (see here). The average age of professors at the University is reaching retirement age and the number of young professors is declining. There are some exceptions, but the all-so-important average looks quite grim. The number of Israeli academics and entrepreneurs who are leaving Israel is highly alarming for the future of Israel. This year, Israel’s students sat idle for 3 months due to a professors’ strike (see here).

The government was late in understanding the brain drain and last year has announced an extremely controversial plan of incentives to bring this trove of Israeli human capital back to its homeland (see here).

Tom’s thesis of shorting Ahmedinajad and Longing Buffett is nice for headlines. But, it is important not to generalize from the one success story (Iscar) to the whole country (Israel). Israelis who read the article feel proud (justifiably) but content (dangerously and unjustifiably). There is a lot to do in this country. We need to start here.